AUD/JPY’s previous 4-hour candle closed at 78.99, confirming a rising wedge breakdown – a bearish reversal pattern.
So, the pair may fall back to 78.83 (4H 200-candle MA). Validating that bearish case is the negative crossover of the 5- and 10-candle moving averages (MA).
On the higher side, a break above 78.74 would confirm a channel breakout on the daily chart and could yield a rally toward 81.18 (Nov. 21 low).
Trend: Cautiously bearish