- RBA minutes offered little hawkish or dovish surprises.
- Aussie house prices fell more than expected in the fourth quarter. The AUD, however, is showing resilience to weak data.
- AUD/USD may rise to the 50-day MA at 0.7133 if the equities pick up a strong bid.
Both the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) March monetary policy meeting and a below-forecast housing data released soon before press time have so far failed to move the needle on the Aussie dollar.
To start with, the RBA minutes took note of the “significant uncertainties” to the economic outlook, especially with respect to domestic demand (consumption), but reiterated that there is no strong case for a near-term policy adjustment.
It added further that the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced” between an interest rate hike and an interest rate cut.
All-in-all, minutes offered little hawkish or dovish surprises, leaving the AUD/USD pair largely unaffected near 0.71.
What’s surprising is that the AUD is showing resilience to weak housing data. Aussie house price index also released a few minutes ago, dropped 2.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, beating the expected decline of 2 percent. The data will likely accentuate concerns of a marked slowdown in dwelling investment in the near-term.
Looking forward, the currency pair may turn green, if the equities put on a good show. As of writing, the futures on the S&P 500 are flat lined.