European Commission to assume a no-deal Brexit with the UK in its forecast

European Commission is said to use a ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario as the basis to prepare its autumn forecast, Spanish media outlet – elEconomista reported, citing community sources.

Key quotes

“In the case of the United Kingdom, the Commission’s Economics services have decided that they will not apply as a baseline scenario the one they had been using up to now of a commercial relationship without changes.“

“A principle that would be impossible to follow once the transition period expired on December 31.”

“However, the technical premise will be that the EU and its former member state will not be able to agree on a new trade relationship, therefore the rules of the World Trade Organization will apply from January 1.”

Market reaction

GBP/USD fades a bounce above 1.2800 amid new UK coronavirus restrictions and fresh concerns over no-deal Brexit.

At the time of writing, the spot sheds 0.27% to trade at 1.2780


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