Gold: Politics to be a driver for the precious metal – TDS

Gold is trading at around $1,950, off the post-Fed lows but below the levels seen prior to the event. The yellow metal also depends on the next round of fiscal stimulus and economists at TD Securities see politics influencing the precious metals.

Key quotes

“As the Fed disappointment in fringe expectations filters out of market positioning, gold market participants will turn their attention back towards conventional market drivers considering that the positioning slate remains void of extremes or ‘weak hands’.”

“Continued signs pointing to recovery should support gold higher as inflation expectations firm. Using this lens, however, reveals that conventional factors may inadvertently be driven by the US election. While central banks have the willingness to let inflation run hot, there is considerable debate surrounding whether they have the ability to stimulate inflation — fiscal impulse may be a more powerful driver for inflation expectations going forward.”

“Markets currently expect that a Democrat victory could reinforce the weaker dollar narrative and thereby support gold, but the inflation tail risk may be more elevated regardless of under an undivided government that could be successful in producing more fiscal packages. Hence, as we enter into the count-down to the Presidential election, we may see the re-emergence of politics as a driver for precious metals.”



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