India’s economy to contract 25.5% in 1Q hurt by lockdown – Barclays

According to Barclays Chief India Economist Rahul Bajoria, the Indian economy is expected to contract 25.5% in April-June (fiscal year Q1) due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic-induced lockdowns.

Key quotes

“While April and May were the worst months from an economic perspective, the still increasing COVID caseload has led to parts of India being under localized lockdowns through June, July and August.”

“For a large number of indicators that had been improving in May and June, activity levels have begun tracking sideways.”

“India to detail growth data on August 31.”

“Expect the economy to contract 8% on-year in July-September.”

“We expect to see a broad-based decline, confirming that the extended lockdowns have driven an unparalleled blow to the Indian economy.”



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